WASHINGTON (By Billy House and Chris
Hawley, Arizona Republic) March 29, 2006
The leaders of the United States, Mexico and Canada meet Thursday in
Cancun to discuss the slow progress in their countries' efforts to build
a stronger North American economic partnership. The talks will coincide
with U.S. Senate debate on immigration reform and border security.
During the two-day summit, President Bush, Mexican President Vicente Fox
and new Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper likely will depict their
relationships as rosier than they are.
The Iraq war, increased tension about border issues and border crime,
and a lack of compliance with trade agreements have overshadowed what
just a few years ago was an optimistic trilateral agenda.
Although no formal pacts are anticipated, a key goal of the summit is starting talks on the next trade steps after the North American Free Trade Agreement expires in 2008.
Immigration is expected to take center stage. The divisive issue has splintered Bush's Republican Party and sparked huge protests in the past week throughout the country.
"With Mexico, obviously, there's big issues, particularly immigration right now," Bush said.
But he emphasized that the relationship between the United States and Mexico "is more than just the migration issue." For instance, he said, Mexico is the United States' second-largest trading partner after Canada.
As for Harper, Bush said talks will touch on U.S. claims that Canadian provinces are unfairly subsidizing their timber producers and concerns expressed by Canadians and Mexicans over new U.S. rules on cross-border travel. Beginning next year, the United States will impose new documentation requirements that some say could impede tourism.
Earlier pact
At a summit one year ago in Waco, Texas, there was talk of a bright new future for all three countries when Bush, Fox and Harper's predecessor, Paul Martin, announced their "Partnership for Prosperity."The agreement called for tighter border and port security in all three countries. That's a priority for the United States, which sees increased security in Canada and Mexico as its first line of defense against terrorists.
Since then, the United States has been quietly funneling millions of dollars to Mexican military and police forces. It has stepped up counterterrorism training for Mexican soldiers, given helicopters and night-vision equipment to Mexican police, and bought X-ray scanners for Mexican ports and border checkpoints.
Mexico, in turn, is extraditing more drug kingpins and is cracking down on Central American migrants who travel through Mexico on their way to illegally enter the United StatesDespite this, the relationship between the United States and Mexico is rockier than ever.
The governors of Arizona and New Mexico declared states of emergency in an attempt to curb illegal immigration and drug violence along the Mexican border.
A drug war flared in the border city of Nuevo Laredo, prompting harsh words from the U.S. ambassador. And there was finger-pointing on both sides after men in Mexican army uniforms were seen aiding drug smugglers on the border near El Paso.
Key disappointment
But the biggest disappointment for Mexicans has been the failure of the United States to pass laws that could legalize the millions of undocumented Mexicans already in the United States.For Fox, who is in the final months of his single six-year term as president, there appears to be a nearly desperate sense of urgency to land immigration reform in the United States as his one mantle trophy.
Last week, the Mexican government paid for full-page ads in the New York Times, the Washington Post and other newspapers designed to influence the immigration debate in the United States. The ads advocated passage of a guest-worker program to allow undocumented immigrants to apply for temporary legal status.
Immigration reform will be a "central point of discussion" when Fox and Bush meet one on one Thursday, said Rubιn Aguilar, a Mexican presidential spokesman.
Aguilar added that Fox has been encouraged by U.S. Senate negotiations on immigration reform. A Senate committee on Monday approved a bill that would allow millions of undocumented immigrants to obtain legal status and gain eventual citizenship without first having to leave the United States.
But the outcome is uncertain because of debate by the full Senate, expected to last two weeks. And reconciling it with a border-security bill the House approved late last year will be difficult, making it tough for any bill to become law, especially in an election year.
Some experts say there is little chance Bush can push such a bill through Congress when dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and other issues has driven his approval rating to a new low of 36 percent, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released March 13.
"President Bush is going to want to talk big this week and sound optimistic," said Mike Lettieri, a research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a non-profit think tank in Washington, D.C.
But, he added, "I think there's very little Bush can promise right now. He's seen his political capital so eroded over the last months."
Past hopes dashed
Bush and Fox had once seemed far more assured of achieving agreement on reforms to deal with illegal immigration from Mexico into the United States and other topics such as trade, drug enforcement and energy.But after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, that agenda took a permanent back seat to U.S. security concerns and the Iraq war.
Many Mexicans feel neglected by their northern neighbor.
Last weekend, many in Mexico watched as thousands of Mexicans and other protesters marched in U.S. cities to demand immigration reform and rejection of the House bill that would make illegal immigrants subject to criminal prosecution.
But others say Mexican officials, including Fox, are overstepping their bounds.
On Tuesday, Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., wrote to Bush that Americans "are tired of being told they are bigots by the likes of President Fox and (Mexican) Foreign Minister (Luis Ernesto) Derbez."
Hayworth requested that Bush make it "publicly clear" during his meetings in Cancun "that their clumsy, over-the-top rhetoric about internal U.S. political matters pertaining to our border security is unwarranted and unacceptable."
Even if Bush helps deliver a migration accord, more cooling could be ahead in the relationship between the two countries. Fox is to leave office this year; Mexico's presidential elections are July 2.
The front-runner in the race is Andrιs Manuel Lσpez Obrador, a blunt-speaking, left-leaning politician who has never been to the United States and seems to have little in common with Bush.
Lσpez Obrador's election also would come as NAFTA enters the final years of its 15-year phase-in period. The last agricultural tariffs are supposed to be lifted in 2008.
Trade officials need to decide what comes next. Should they allow the free flow of workers across their borders, like the European Union does? Should they forge a common customs union for imports from the outside, like the systems adopted by the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc?
"What is talked about in Cancun could help guide these countries as they look for the next step after NAFTA," said Imtiaz Hussain, an international studies professor at Iberoamerican University in Mexico City.
But Lσpez Obrador wants to reverse some parts of NAFTA, such as a provision that would open Mexico's corn and bean markets to foreign imports in 2008.
He also has vowed to turn Mexican consulates into "prosecutors' offices" for defending the rights of migrants, presumably in U.S. courts.
The summit also represents a chance to improve relations between the United States and Canada.
It could jump-start talks to end a decades-long fight over softwood lumber. Canada has accused the United States of wrongly imposing duties on Canadian lumber to protect its own lumber industry. The United States has accused Canadian provinces of violating trade agreements by subsidizing its lumber exports.
In addition, Harper recently said he'll consider letting Canada join a continental ballistic missile defense system with the United States.
Republic Washington reporter Mike Madden contributed to this article.
