Mexican president race gets negative

MEXICO CITY (By Will Weissert, Associated Press) April 3, 2006 — Mexico's presidential race has gone negative with attempts to tie the front-runner to Hugo Chavez and portray him as a leftist revolutionary in the same mold as the Venezuelan president.

After weeks of leveling unsubstantiated allegations that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's campaign has been infiltrated by Chavez supporters, the conservative National Action Party went even further in a TV ad aired last month.

The ad takes a clip from a diplomatic flap last year in which Chavez warned Mexican President Vicente Fox: "Don't mess with me, sir. You'll get stung." Then it cuts to video of Lopez Obrador yelling at Fox: "Shut up, citizen president."

"Say no to intolerance," it concludes.

Chavez fires back

In Caracas, Chavez complained that "the Mexican right is using television spots . . . to try and stop the rise of the Mexican left and of its presidential candidate."

Then Lopez Obrador's opponents, who had dragged Chavez's name into the race in the first place, demanded a federal investigation into whether the Venezuelan's retort violated Mexico's law against foreign interference in elections.

So far, the fuss has done little to shrink Lopez Obrador's lead over former Fox Energy Secretary Felipe Calderon, his nearest rival, four months before the vote. Lopez Obrador said he has never met Chavez or even spoken with him by phone.

"Our adversaries are very desperate," he said recently.

His opponents portray the former Mexico City mayor as a demagogue who will scare off foreign investment, antagonize Washington, nationalize more industries and leave Mexico deeply in debt.

Chavez and his socialist revolution fed by Venezuela's oil wealth are the sharp end of a Latin American trend toward electing left-leaning leaders after a decade in which free-market economics failed to substantially dent the region's chronic poverty.

Base is 'poor, forgotten'

Lopez Obrador's base is what he calls Mexico's "poor and forgotten." As mayor of 8.7 million in the "Distrito Federal," he provided cash grants to the needy and financed expensive public works, including a second deck on two major city highways and new bus system.

Foes claim he left the capital more indebted than ever, although convoluted bookkeeping makes that hard to confirm.

Now he promises to hold down fuel prices at the likely expense of the state-run oil monopoly and other business interests. But he insists he's a moderate who will welcome international investment and keep Washington happy.

Fox, constitutionally limited to one six-year term, leaves office in December, six months after the July 2 vote, and there are already signs institutional momentum is flowing in Lopez Obrador's direction: Fox's former chief of staff joined his campaign this month.

Running with the leftist Democratic Revolution Party and two smaller factions, Lopez Obrador holds a lead of 10-plus points over Calderon in most polls. Roberto Madrazo, the Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate, trails even further.

Major business leaders who may soon have to work with a Lopez Obrador administration have been careful not to publicly criticize him.

"For now, everything is calm, but some of his statements, especially recently, have been exaggeratedly populist," said Yasmin Corona, an analyst at Bursametrica, a financial consulting company in Mexico City. "There is fear in certain sectors."

Pamela Starr, an analyst at Eurasia Group in Washington, said Mexican business is "afraid he's becoming like Chavez, saying reasonable things now but changing when he gets in power."

But Larry Rubin, head of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, said most investors think the economy will stay stable regardless of who is in power.